Thursday, December 29, 2005

Auld Lang Syne

I just saw this over on the NWAC site and had to cross post it, much better than anything I could ever write:

It’s three days before the end of the year,
And recent snows have changed gloom to cheer...
With more on the way spirits are soaring-
For the weather ahead will be anything but boring.

After a day of drying, the westerlies arrive,
And Friday promises to shift park to drive;
Heavy snow, high winds, we’ll break but not bend,
Just need to get through a brief warming trend.

The easterly flow will help near the crest,
And will minimize the rain for we feel that’s best,
As we close out the year and start out 06,
The weekend ahead looks snowy and brisk...

So enjoy the storms and the ones beyond those,
But stay aware of the danger and don’t get hosed-
Keep checking for clues wherever you go,
For it’s hard to enjoy if you’re under the snow.

Well, I am hopeful that we will (w)ring out the old [snow pack] and bring in the new [freeshies] this weekend. Now anyone paying attention this year knows that the forecasting has been, much like this stupid blog, a bit erratic. So all of this must be taken with a bit more salt than usual. However, this is the deal for the moment: A new front is supposed to move in to the area tonight/tomorrow and bring in some ample precipitation. On that matter I believe most forecasters agree. The key component here is what will the snow levels do. This is where things break down a bit. I believe that it will start low, and raise on Friday coming back down on Saturday, and staying down hopefully for awhile. So how high will it rise? Well, one forecast has said it will stay at or below pass levels, meaning constant snow in the resorts and ski areas, others have said it will go as high as 7000 on Friday. Generally speaking they keep revising forecasts to lower the snow levels. With all this in mind this is what I think

Thursday Night: Snow Turning to Rain Late
Friday: Rain
Friday Night: Rain turning to Snow
Saturday: Snow mixed with rain early, then snow.
Saturday Night: Snow
Sunday: Snow
Monday: Snow
I think there will be a good chance for some New Years Eve Skiing and that the snow will just get better into the weekend and Monday.

Longer term: Potential for more consistent low snow levels and ample moisture into Mid January, maybe a brief period of drying out, but expected to be minor.

In reality who knows so ski it when you can.

Happy New Year!