Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Well, well, well,

Looking out my window it is a brilliant day (sorry I watched the second season of The Office and picked up some quaint sayings), it makes me heart hum to see the grey drizzle. So checking in with good old Bingen Bart this morning and checking the telemetry it seems we got two overnight. Now I know some of you who originate a little bit closer to the equator than the rest of us are probably thinking to yourselves, damn a 16" base with two inches fresh and it is still snowing, sounds like a snorkel powder day to me!!! Well welcome to the north kiddies, y'all might be happy with any snow but it aint nuttin'. Hold on to yur doggies as they say in your land. The pow will come, and the north will win again, just like we did last time.

As for the forcast, it may be setting up real well for the weekend, but I am very dubious, I have been burned by NOAA once already so I am taking a wait and see approach. You know once bitten twice shy, just like that time I went out with that really cute chic with the deep voice, she was tall and athletic, and when we start getting it on I notice her feet are real long, and it hit me (ok the facial stubble should have been a clue), man I was out of there (hey no offense tree, you the real Supergirl!). Haven't dated a tall chick since, ok I haven't dated anyone since, stop splitting hairs. Man tough crowd. If all things come together you all won't be hearing from me anytime soon, I'll be skiing the next four days, if your heading up give me a call.
Keep praying Kiddies

yours truly,

The Snow Curmudgeon

Tuesday, December 28, 2004

Greetings all,

Snow Curmudgeon here. Well we were screwed by the last storm front to move through the region, I guess it decided to stay off shore and roll into California where they are getting dumped on. However due to my undying commitment to giving everyone the best possible snow information possible I did brave the conditions on Christmas Day and Boxing Day to check it out for myself.

The report: Awesome!!! Man the packed powder (translation: ice) was great for carving!!! Really workde those edges. Just look out for unmarked obstacles :) And swing by the shop on the way out for some P-tex. I also learned thatgrass is pretty fun to ski on! Sunday there was 2" of frshies on top of an inclined ice rink, it seems me, my firend, and boarders were the only ones dumb, I mean smart enough, to ski and take advantage of the killer conditions. I love the new lift too, the frsh breeze at the top is very refreshing and invigorating!

The most ironic sight of the weekend for me was seeing the lines for the tubing hill longer than all the lines at meadows combined! And this hill is nothing more than that hill between the upper and lower fields at Katlin Gable. Sad, so sad....Or actually maybe THE saddest sight was the "snow maker" at meadows that blew a pathetic amount of snow into the air and then floated off into the woods behind the lift, there must be an awesome stash in there! too bad it's flat!!

So I keep being asked "where's the snow, snow curmudgeon?" I think the information below will answer all your questions: (read all the way down for the lay persons translation)

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 135 PM EST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 31 2004 - 12Z TUE JAN 04 2005 FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION... PREFERENCE OF MORNING UPDATE AND AFTN FINALS REMAINS TOWARDS THE ECMWF OVER E PAC AND CONUS BASED ON CONTINUITY/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE/GOOD SFC AGREEMENT OF BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND AND CONSENSUS OF SUPERENSEMBLES. GFS APPEARS TO AGAIN BE IN ERROR TAKING DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF PAC NW COAST INTO THE NRN INTERMTN REGION INSTEAD OF DOWN THE COAST LIKE ECMWF WHICH VERIFIED VERY WELL WITH CURRENT EVENT SUPERIOR TO ITS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. OP GFS PUSHES ITS LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER STRONG PLAINS RIDGING RIGHT INTO THE GULFMEX BY DAY 6 MON IN SPITE OF STRONG RIDGING. PREFER ECMWF HOLDING THIS WELL NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DAY 6-7 ADJUSTMENT OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF RUNS MADE OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWD TO NR THE MASON DIXON LINE INSTEAD OF WELL NWD ERN LAKES/ST LAWR RVR VLY AS PER OP ECMWF AS KEEPING MID LEVEL TROF ALONG CA COAST AND PLAINS RIDGING MORE WWD ALLOWS MORE ROOM FOR LOWER HTS EWD INTO ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST AS OCCURED YTDA. DGEX LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM GFS RUNS AND NOT AN ACCEPTABLE SOLUTION.

LATEST NOGAPS CLOSE TO ECMWF WITH WEAKER PLAINS/OH VLY SYSTEM BUT REMAINS TOO FAR INLAND WITH THE WRN TROF/CLOSED LOW. 12Z GFS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN BUT TRENDING WEAKER WITH ITS PLAINS/LAKES SYSTEM SUN. NEW 12Z CANADIAN SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN GFS LIFTING OUT A SFC LOW INTO ONT DAY 6 FASTER THAN ECMWF AND SLOWER THAN GFS....UKMET FAIRLY SIMILAR. LATEST 12Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR 00Z AND 12Z RUNS AND REMAINS HPC MODEL OF CHOICE FOR TODAY.

LONGER TERM D+8S OF ECMWF AND GFS QUITE SIMILAR TDA...DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG NRN/CNTRAL CA COAST...RIDGING OVER GULFMEX AND SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG SRN STREAM CONNECTION BAHA THRU MID ATLC REGION. UPSTREAM AN ERN PAC RIDGE PERSISTS WITH A SEPATE NRN STREAM THAT COMES OVER THE RIDGE ALONG THE CANADIAN/CONUS BORDER WITH STRONG CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENG AND MARITIMES.

...EAST... ECMWF PREFERENCE SHOWS SIG WARM UP FRI/SAT EXCEPT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO NEW ENG WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SERN CANADA AND NEW ENG. STRONG SFC HIGH TO BUILD OVER THE EAST WITH NE FLOW DOWN THE COAST NEW ENG INTO FL BUT WITH WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINING WELL N OVER NEW ENG. STRONG GULF RETURN WITH HIGH HTS WILL KEEP MDT/MILD TEMPS OVER THE EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. N OF MASON DIXON LINE/OH RVR HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE OVER INTO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 7 TUES.

...CENTRAL... ECMWF REMAINS PREFERENCE HERE WITH MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND ESP SFC LOW REFLECTION LIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LAKES REGION WITH MUCH LESS FRONTAL PENETRATION SWD THAN GFS SERIES DAYS 5-7 SUN-TUES.

...WEST... AGAIN HERE STRONG PREFERENCE OF THE ECMWF DUE TO PAST MODEL PERFORMANCE...BETTER THAN ENSEMBLES OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. STRONGER MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW MUCH FARTHER SWD AND WWD THAN GFS.

...ALASKA... STRONGER NERN PAC RIDGING CONTS HERE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 140W KEEPING WARM CONDS OVER THE STATE. ROSENSTEIN

Layperson Translation: Find a new sport, we're screwed!!!!

Happy New Year

Snow Curmudgeon

Thursday, December 23, 2004

Ho Ho Ho skiers and snowboarders, this is the Snow Curmudgeon with you holiday ski forcast!!!

Looks like another beatiful day up on the mountain, unless you want to ski. But come on up anyway, Santa will bring you some new boards so don't worry about those core shots. We have an awesome terrain park set up on the bunny slope. Grind those rails on the boulder field, and launch from patch of snow to patch of snow, it's a blast up here, so come on up. We'll also have the Danimal himself dressed up as santa for the ladies to sit on his lap and tell him how naughty they are, oh ummmm, did I say that? Yeah, well nervermind that last bit, come on up it's a great day. And, because I love you guys, I did some real research and digging around for some long range forcast model updates, I know you will be absolutely fascinated by the following, keep the faith, happy holidays

Snow Curmudgeon

MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM....A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING OFF ASIA BUILDS A STRONG HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND PULLS DOWN BITTER COLD ARTIC AIR FROM THE POLAR REGIONS THAT CLASHES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE STAGE IS THEN SET FOR THE CLASH OF THE TITANS.....DESTRUCTIVE PHASING OCCURS AFTER CHRISTMAS RESULTING IN A POWERFULL EAST-WEST JETSTREAM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL BC, CANADA....THIS JET PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN +PNA PATTERN BY FLUSHING BITTER COLD AIR EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THEREBY OPENING UP THE STORM DOOR FOR THE WEST COAST AFTER CHRISTMAS AND JUST BEFORE NEW YEARS DAY. IT IS AFTER CHRISTMAS THAT THE PATTERN CHANGE WELL ADVERTIZED COMES INTO PLAY. THE MODELS, GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD TO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT RETROGRESSION WILL OCCUR OF A RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO NEAR 160W. THIS FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND IS EVIDENT IN ALL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVE BY NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH JANUARY 3RD. THE NAO INDEX WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRONGLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN VALUE BUT REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY. WITH ALL THIS SAID....AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH MODEL SCENARIO WILL BE THE ONE THAT WILL PLAY OUT.....THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE DETAILS AND TIMING WILL BECOME CLEARER DURING THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN CHANGE.

Wednesday, December 22, 2004


[SC Note: I am trying to recreate all the previous posts for all my fans' enjoyment, I am missing the first few though, so if any of you happen to have saved them, you all did din't you? please send them along and I will post them here]

Due to the lack of new snow please refer to my previous post for today's conditions (Brian if you told me your new e-mail you would have gotten it), but be sure to check out the forecast at the end, looks like Santa might bring the Curmudgeon white Coal for x-mas, maybe all the charity work (see rule #5) has payed off and gotten the Snow Curmudgeon of the Naughty list. I like naughty though.

In the mean time for those of you new to the Snow Curmudgeon forecast I am including some important rules for you to follow:

1) Always be nice to the Snow Curmudgeon or NO SNOW FOR YOU!!!!!!
2) If you give the Snow Curmudgeon Beer he may even LET you ski with him (but he may not show you the freshie stash until he really trusts you)
3) Never Doubt the accuracy of a Snow Curmudgeon Report, doing so will lose you access to all future updates.
4) The Snow Curmudgeon is really a nice guy, so feel free to recommend him to your friends, especially any cute ladies that telemark.
5) Most importantly, ALWAYS, ALWAYS remember that Telemarking is far superior to any other from of Glisse, and that snowboarding is the lowest form, ok, second lowest form, mono skiing is slightly lower, but close and really the same thing. (p.s. I don't even count ski-bikes) Neverless consider yourself lucky that the Sow Curmudgeon even associates with you if you don't tele. In reality it is a form of pitty. Much like Jesus Christ, the Snow Curmudgeon surrounds himself with those who need the most guidance and assistance.

OK, now for the long range forcast: .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET. PASS WINDS WEST 10 MPH BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...CLEARING. WINDY. FREE AIR FREEZING LEVEL 4500 FEET. PASS WINDS BECOMING EAST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. FREE AIR FREEZING LEVEL 4500 FEET RISING TO 6500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. PASS WINDS EAST 15 TO 20 MPH. .CHRISTMAS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4000 FEET. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4000 FEET. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 2000 FEET. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 2000 FEET. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 2500 FEET. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 2500 FEET. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW LEVEL 2000 FEET.