I am sure all of you are as dismayed as I am. I spent the last few weeks working on my presentation for this morning's "13th Annual What Will the Winter Be Like" meeting sponsored by the Oregon Chapter of American Meteorological Society. Yeah, I know I am not a meteorologist, so I wasn't thinking they wanted my forecast for the winter, but I am a shoe in for the "Winter 2005 in review" presentation. I mean come on, who better to give a review of that abysmal year than yours truly, the SNOW CURMUDGEON? But Nooooo, they have Mark Nelson, the TV personality forecaster from FOX 12. Yes, that's right, FOX 12, as in Ruppert "I make Dick Cheney Look Like a Liberal" Murdoch's FOX. So my original plan was to go and heckle the crap out of the guy. I was gonna bring some water to throw at him every time he Rain, and some down feathers for when he said snow, you know a kind of "tar and feathering" of the guy, but then I was thinking that it would be an even better message if I just boycotted it, THEN I had the great idea that I should just do my own "What Will the Winter Be Like" presentation, right here, for the people that matter, the poor uneducated folks, not some insider fancy elite meeting. (ok I admit, I only didn't go because I forgot my bike lock today and couldn't lock my bike up at OMSI).
So here goes; What Will the Weather Bring:
First let's review 2005:
It was Crap
OK, now let's look at Winter 2006:
As a special feature, and to out do those snooty AMS guys, I got Portland's very own Matt Zaphino to give his winter forecast. Take it away Matt:
"Thanks SC, I am predicting that this winter we will see temps cooler than summer, with partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of rain in the valley and snows at higher elevations. Which reminds me, this weekend I will be live on site at the 2005 skin and snow.."
Uh, thanks Matt, that's enough. Ok so maybe Matt was a bad choice. Well let's see what I can do. It seems that most people seem to be saying that we will have near normal to above normal precip and temps. A lower chance of snow in the valley, but ample snows in the Mts. It will be wet with some short dry periods, and extreme weather events, such as big rains, wind storms on the coast etc.. Some folks such as state Climatologist, George "I don't believe in GLobal warming" Taylor are comparing it to the Winter of '95-96. Now I wasn't here that winter, I was serving our country as a Peace Corps volunteer in Paraguay, where it was so fucking hot, and they made us wear pants to class everyday, and walk to and from school up this big ass hill in 100+ degree heat, no wonder we always stopped halfway up that hill at Spinzi's bar and got piss drunk, ah those were the days, oh yeah forecast. Shit, I lost my train of thought, ah no ones listening anymore any way.
What really matters right now is that it is SNOWING in the mountains. Meadows has 19" at the base right now and they are calling for 16-28" inches throughout the weekend. There will be a warming trend moving through Saturday afternoon/evening, then snow levels will drop again, and looks like they will stay down with snow showers during the week and another front coming in maybe next Thursday. SO far so good. I will predict an opening day of November 19th. But being the Curmudgeon that I am, maybe we shouldn't count our eggs just yet, this hen may turn out to be a rooster after all. So I will warn that the past two years started big, and then faded out, so let's stay calm and relaxed.
In the mean time, you might want to swing those boards over to the Mt Shop for some preseason tuning. It is worth it. Or you can pay me and I will have my trained monkey do it in my garage. He'll do just as good a job too.
Keep it Real
The Weekend's Forecast:
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
.TODAY...SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDY. SNOW LEVEL 3500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8
INCHES. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 3500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5
INCHES. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...RAIN WITH SNOW INCREASING. WINDY. IN THE NORTH...SNOW
LEVEL 3500 FEET RISING TO 4500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
SOUTH...SNOW LEVEL 5000 FEET RISING TO 6500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 12 INCHES. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN...WINDY. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW
LEVEL 7000 FEET. PASS WINDS SOUTH 15 TO 30 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4500 FEET. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST
10 TO 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4000 FEET.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4000 FEET.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWLEVEL 3000 FEET.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 3000
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 5000
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 5500
TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION
GOVERNMENT CAMP 34 32 40 35 38 / 100 90 100 100 70
WILLAMETTE PASS 33 29 38 35 37 / 80 80 100 100 70