Tuesday, February 15, 2005

The sun is shining the birds are chirping, it can only mean one thing, it's May in Oregon! Wait, that's not right, what the hell?!?! When will this nightmare end? Based on the discussions included at the end of the report, not anytime soon. Sorry kids.

Sunday's skiing was ok, worth the drive. What I want to know is what gives with the racers? Those kids kill me. They make punk boarders look downright civilized, cutting in lines, taking up half of Shooting star, come on. But man I love those skin suits, where can I get me one of them?

Congratulations to Kim for getting in some riding yesterday. It always makes me happy to see one of our own get an enjoyable day on the mountain. Widh I could have joined joined you, but I gotta save those sick days for the "special" moments.

Keep your fingers crossed for the weekend, but I am skeptical. It is only a Slight POP (probability of precipitation), damn split upper trough is causing it all to go way north or way south. Read on for more:

Love,
SC

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE BC COAST WILL BUILD
INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE CA COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGS THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR
RAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC WATERS. SKIES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ARE CLEAR AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS COOL WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
LOWS REACHED INTO THE MID 20S IN THE LOW ELEVATION AREAS. SEE LITTLE
TO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS POINT SINCE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING
FOR EAST WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST AND HIGHER PRESSURE SINKING INTO E OREGON.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED BACK TO THE SW FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL PULL E TODAY AS MODELS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE BC
COAST...AND BUILD IT SE INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION...OFF THE CA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN WELL
S OF THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS E OF THE CASCADES...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DESPITE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS MAINTAIN A STABLE REX BLOCK THROUGH FRI...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SYSTEM DROPPING S OUT
OF CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE CANADIAN MODEL MAINTAINS A SPLIT
FLOW. NOT A LIT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE STABILITY
OF THE PRESENT PATTERN...BUT GIVEN THE SIMILARITIES TO ECMWF...WILL
NEED TO KEEP A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST FROM SAT NIGHT ON.