Monday, November 28, 2005

Epic (ep'ik) n. [Gr. epos, a word, song, epic] a long narrative poem in a dignified style about the deeds of a hero or heroes- adj. of or like an epic; heroic; grand

I heard this word many times on Saturday as people tried to describe the day. It got me wondering, what exactly does epic mean, and what makes a day on the mountain epic?

I am sure many of you, well, maybe some, first learned of an epic in grade school when studying Homer, and reading the Iliad and the Odyssey. I know I remember making dioramas from that famous epic. Mine was on the golden fleece. Those stories are Epics. No doubt about it. The Slaying of cyclops, stealing sirens, sleeping with sheep, the kind of material that they teach for centuries.

So when it comes to skiing, what makes it all epic? Instead of writing a nice Epic about it, I did some thinking and developed 3 criteria that you can use to determine if a day on the mountain is epic. Before I delve into it, I need to mention the "the Dude's principle of epic relativity" simply put, epic conditions in one place may not be epic in another. Two inches of slush on a sloped field may be Epic in Florida, but don't try that here. This is important as we look at the three factors of Epicicity:

#1: Snow- Seriously! I know, it's as obvious as THC in a boarders blood, but hear me out. There are two facets to a potential day of epic snow. The first is new snow fall. You have to have some nice fresh snow to ski. For the NW, I would say that a minimum of 18" of fresh since closing with a max temperature of 26 deg., in the Rockies, you better have over 2 1/2' and no warmer than 15 degress. The other side of the snow facet is the base. You can have a lot of snow, but if all you do is ski over rocks, forget it. (note: this eliminates any and all day last year, even if I said they were epic last year) So here we want atleast five feet of solid snow below the fresh.

#2: Weather- The conditions for the day must be good all day long. I think there are two possibilities here. One is a crisp Blue Bird day, where the snow stays cold and light and but the sun shines, one that is very rare here. The other is a continual dump with a light wind that covers almost all the tracks, but not so bad as to limit vision. How hard it has to snow depends on the third and final factor:

#3- Crowds- For a truly Epic day, one of Homeric proportions, there must be minimal crowds. This is a fine line, no pun intended, you don't want it so empty that all you do is ride right up to the next chair. No one can last all day in epic conditions like that, and it can get a little lonely. What is ideal is just enough people that you have to wait in line for no more than 2-3 rows of people, just enough to get a rest and rave how good it is with the other skiers around you, and you can hoot and holler while skiing and hear others doing the same all day long, because you will all know you are experiencing something special.

When, and only when all three of these conditions exist, will you be able to tell all your friends honestly, that it was an epic day on the mountain, and one where you will be telling your grandchildren about as you sit in your nursing home rocking chair. Most of us will never see an an epic day, but I just know that when it happens, I'll know, and you'll all be the first to hear about it.

As for the forecast:

Things are looking good this week. Snow levels are low, real low, below 300 almost all week, and decent precip to go with it. Could be a nice weekend, so free up your schedule and get ready to ski. Looking to next week, it may warm up a bit, 4-5500' but looking wet still. We'll have to keep an eye on that snow level, it could go either way.

Thursday, November 24, 2005


Gobble Gobble


Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

I saw something strange in the sky this morning. I was up early and look out to see the stars and the moon, but something was blocking part of the view.
" what could it be?" I wondered aloud.

Is it a flock of birds heading South for the winter, it is cold outside, or Perhaps it is a plane? Or Could it be a UFO? Oh, I know what they are, they're called clouds! Puffy white and grey floating through the sky. I have not seen something so pretty in quite sometime. It truly is a day to be thankful.

Don't eat too much, got fit into that purple on-piece tomorrow, and fight the crowds at the resort. But it is supposed to Snow tonight, and tomorrow, and as a matter of fact there is snow in the forecast everyday for the next week. And levels will be nice and low, coming down as much as 1500'. Good news for sizable. I'll believe it when I see it.

I hope you all have a happy thanksgiving,


SC

Sunday, November 20, 2005

End of My Rope


It's only November 20, and already I am despodant. Some people have SAD (Seasonal Affectiveness Disorder), yet I am cursed with the antithisis Sunlight Affected Temper And Nurosis(SATAN). I get really angry after October 15th if it's Sunny for more than a day. So you can imagine what I must be like right now. OK for those that know me there is no imagining, actually I seem like I always do, but I know the difference damnit, and I am pissed. Heads must roll. To give you an idea of how bad it is, I have started checking Weather.com for the 10 day forecast for Govy, just for any hope of an end this infernal sunshine. I k now Weather.com! Come on who checks that drivel for forecasts, might as well read the farmers almanac!

It's also getting into my dreams. No shit, I am dead serious here, I had a dream that it rained even when the forcast called for sun, but no it rained, and in my dream I was frantically trying to find out if it was snowing on the mountain, but I wasn't near a computer, and both the Meadows sno fone and NOAA weather line were busy. I was going nuts. Damn, did I just share too much?

Well no rain today, and all there is to look forward to this week is some showers maybe on Friday with an 8000' snow level. Looks like next Monday, the 28th might have some precip, but it looks like it may be warm still. So I am thinking it is time we take matters into our own hands. Back in the day, when there was a drought or something people assumed that some god was pissed at them, and they needed to do something to make it right. The most powerful thing they could do to apepase their pagan god was human sacrifice. The general modus operandi was to feed some virgin to a Volcano or some prehistoric beast, such as King King, or the Kracken. Now we don't have a Kracken, but maybe we could pass Danimal off as King Kong, he's hairy enough, and looked to be getting big enough at the Pink Party (well, not tall enough, but he has the other dimensions down). But on second thought I couldn't do that to any Virgin, plus I don't know any Virgins, and if I did I wouldn't waste her on some sacrifice. What I think we need to do is sacrifice one of these damn wanna be weathermen who are obviously pissing off Snow Miser by thinking they can "predict" the weather. You know, give them the chance at some self realization of their prediciton of a "normal" winter. And I have the perfect plan. I just need a couple of accomplices, I mean fellow High Priests or Priestesses of Snow Miser. Here's the plan:

The Target: Who better than Matt Zaphino
The 411: Every thanksgiving Matt flaps his gums as the honorary turkey at the Turkey Trot at the Zoo. The race begins at 9:00am. All we need is a van, and three High Priests(esses), I will run behind Matt, and as we work our way down towards the Rose Garden, the van will be parked on the side of the road, as we approach, me and two of the Order of Snow Curmudgeon will grab and bag Matt into the van. Then we will drive him up to Timberline Lodge, where we will hijack a snow cat and drive up the mountain and sacrifice the infidel to Lord Snow Miser while singing his song:
Here Mister Snow Miser
Make it 20 below
Here Mister Snow Miser
Make it Snow Snow Snow
Here Mister Snow Miser
You're too much
Here Mister Snow Miser
He'll freeze with your touch!

Then we'll drive back to Portland have a big thanksgiving dinner, wax our boards and go spend the night in the Meadows lot and be the first one's there to ski the unexpected Blizzard of 2005!!!

Sweet!

So, who's in?

SnowCurmudgeon

P.S. Is it illegal to plot to sacrifice someone on the internet? Just incase, everyone who reads this agrees to an oath of secrecy. Phew, I feel better now.

Monday, November 14, 2005

Report for 11/14/05

Welcome to ski season 2005/06! By looking outside you can see it is off to an auspicious beginning, and the forecast doesn’t look any better. If you ignore the temperatures, it looks like August for the next seven days, Morning clouds and afternoon sun. If you are like me, or aspiring to be like me (which you should be) you too are wondering what’s up with that. Well you are in luck, as you have turned to the right place. First though I need to address some questions I have had recently, mainly, does the SC really know anything about weather, or am I just making it all up. A question commonly asked of all meteorologists, professional and amateur alike. It is just this kind of constant questioning and second guessing that makes our lot particularly tough skinned. The answer of course is I know what I am talking about, and making it up as I feel fit. It is kind of like playing God in a way, except for the small detail of not being able to actually control the weather, details, details. Rest assured dedicated readers, you can consider the word of the Snow Curmudgeon gospel, and if you are still not convinced, just ask me sometime, I will be glad to explain the ERF models, Western Troughs, the effects of ocean currents, and how a butterfly wing beat in Asia can cause a Hurricane.

As for the important stuff, i.e. when is it going to snow again? Well, even with the short term forecast looking bleak, there are no real signs of a long term or permanent drying out at this at this time. As a matter of fact it still looks like we can expect heavy mountain snows by the end of November. Remember, the long range forecasts all called for wet weather with periods of drying out, and being in the transition period now, we are just seeing a temporary reaction to the changing weather pattern. I would think that by next Tuesday or Wednesday we will be back to being wet. In the mean time, work on your tan, and rake those leaves while you still can. And if you are really jonesin for some skiing, you may find some nice spring like conditions up on Cascade this week. No kidding, Cascade open in Novemeber….Does this sound bright and cheerful? Well it is Monday, by Friday I will be back to my doom and gloom.

SC

Tuesday, November 08, 2005


Game On....or Delay of Game?

What is the old saying about history repeating itself? I don't know but I don't like it.

Well, being the faithful Snow Curmudgeon that I am, I ventured up to Meadows on Saturday to see how things looked. Get a sneak preview so to speak. As David Waag said, "The first tour of the winter is always exciting but sometimes it is difficult to let go of the safety of Fall." and that is how I felt Saturday. Not really ready to face winter, but fear not, I had my emergency cajones in my pack to give me that extra boost. How was it you ask? Well, it looks pretty good, compared to last year. But then again, almost everything looks good comapred to last year. As I was skiing around, I unfortunately find myself thinking about last year. And what the chances are of another horrible winter, is it really the same?. Hmmm I wonder, let's see here, for one Tree is still an evil wench, two, last year I went skiing a week before the planned opening day, and we all remember what happened then, no? Let me refresh, we had just about 3' of snow, and the day before opening a warm front came through and the rain melted all the snow. But that was crazy right? That can't happen again can it? But wait I did just go skiing a week before opening, there is just about 3' of snow, let's check the forcast...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. FREE AIR FREEZING LEVEL 12000 FEET
LOWERING TO 11000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15
MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY NORTH...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.
SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 8000 FEET. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 6000 FEET LOWERING TO
5500 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

Two Words: Oh Shit!

What is the old saying about history repeating itself? I don't know but I don't like it.

Keep hoping....

SC

Friday, November 04, 2005

SNUBBED!!!!

Dear Readers,

I am sure all of you are as dismayed as I am. I spent the last few weeks working on my presentation for this morning's "13th Annual What Will the Winter Be Like" meeting sponsored by the Oregon Chapter of American Meteorological Society. Yeah, I know I am not a meteorologist, so I wasn't thinking they wanted my forecast for the winter, but I am a shoe in for the "Winter 2005 in review" presentation. I mean come on, who better to give a review of that abysmal year than yours truly, the SNOW CURMUDGEON? But Nooooo, they have Mark Nelson, the TV personality forecaster from FOX 12. Yes, that's right, FOX 12, as in Ruppert "I make Dick Cheney Look Like a Liberal" Murdoch's FOX. So my original plan was to go and heckle the crap out of the guy. I was gonna bring some water to throw at him every time he Rain, and some down feathers for when he said snow, you know a kind of "tar and feathering" of the guy, but then I was thinking that it would be an even better message if I just boycotted it, THEN I had the great idea that I should just do my own "What Will the Winter Be Like" presentation, right here, for the people that matter, the poor uneducated folks, not some insider fancy elite meeting. (ok I admit, I only didn't go because I forgot my bike lock today and couldn't lock my bike up at OMSI).

So here goes; What Will the Weather Bring:

First let's review 2005:
It was Crap

OK, now let's look at Winter 2006:
As a special feature, and to out do those snooty AMS guys, I got Portland's very own Matt Zaphino to give his winter forecast. Take it away Matt:

"Thanks SC, I am predicting that this winter we will see temps cooler than summer, with partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of rain in the valley and snows at higher elevations. Which reminds me, this weekend I will be live on site at the 2005 skin and snow.."

Uh, thanks Matt, that's enough. Ok so maybe Matt was a bad choice. Well let's see what I can do. It seems that most people seem to be saying that we will have near normal to above normal precip and temps. A lower chance of snow in the valley, but ample snows in the Mts. It will be wet with some short dry periods, and extreme weather events, such as big rains, wind storms on the coast etc.. Some folks such as state Climatologist, George "I don't believe in GLobal warming" Taylor are comparing it to the Winter of '95-96. Now I wasn't here that winter, I was serving our country as a Peace Corps volunteer in Paraguay, where it was so fucking hot, and they made us wear pants to class everyday, and walk to and from school up this big ass hill in 100+ degree heat, no wonder we always stopped halfway up that hill at Spinzi's bar and got piss drunk, ah those were the days, oh yeah forecast. Shit, I lost my train of thought, ah no ones listening anymore any way.

What really matters right now is that it is SNOWING in the mountains. Meadows has 19" at the base right now and they are calling for 16-28" inches throughout the weekend. There will be a warming trend moving through Saturday afternoon/evening, then snow levels will drop again, and looks like they will stay down with snow showers during the week and another front coming in maybe next Thursday. SO far so good. I will predict an opening day of November 19th. But being the Curmudgeon that I am, maybe we shouldn't count our eggs just yet, this hen may turn out to be a rooster after all. So I will warn that the past two years started big, and then faded out, so let's stay calm and relaxed.

In the mean time, you might want to swing those boards over to the Mt Shop for some preseason tuning. It is worth it. Or you can pay me and I will have my trained monkey do it in my garage. He'll do just as good a job too.

Keep it Real

SC


The Weekend's Forecast:
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDY. SNOW LEVEL 3500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8
INCHES. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 3500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5
INCHES. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...RAIN WITH SNOW INCREASING. WINDY. IN THE NORTH...SNOW
LEVEL 3500 FEET RISING TO 4500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
SOUTH...SNOW LEVEL 5000 FEET RISING TO 6500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 12 INCHES. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN...WINDY. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW
LEVEL 7000 FEET. PASS WINDS SOUTH 15 TO 30 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4500 FEET. PASS WINDS SOUTHWEST
10 TO 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4000 FEET.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4000 FEET.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWLEVEL 3000 FEET.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 3000
FEET.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
4000 FEET.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 5000
FEET.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL
5500 FEET.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 5500
FEET.

&&
TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION
GOVERNMENT CAMP 34 32 40 35 38 / 100 90 100 100 70
WILLAMETTE PASS 33 29 38 35 37 / 80 80 100 100 70